Looking at the reports - The rainfall in the southern India, would be deficit.
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The moderate to strong La Nina conditions that prevailed in the equatorial Pacific during mid-August 2010 to early February 2011 weakened during subsequent months and dissipated to neutral conditions around mid-May 2011. The latest forecasts from a majority of the dynamical and statistical models indicate strong probability for the present ENSO-neutral conditions to continue during the current monsoon season and the remaining part of 2011.
It is important to note that in addition to El Niño and La Niña events, other factors such as the Indian Ocean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have also significant influence on India monsoon. However, the latest forecasts do not suggest development of either a positive or a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event during the 2011 monsoon season. In the absence of strong monsoon forcing from both Pacific and Indian Oceans, intraseasonal variation may become more crucial during this southwest monsoon season and lead to increased uncertainty in the monsoon forecasts.
Summary of the Update Forecasts for 2011 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall
i) Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall
Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2011 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be below normal (90-96% of LPA).
ii) Monthly (July & August) Rainfall
Rainfall over the country as a whole in the month of July 2011 is likely to be
93% of its LPA and that in the month of August is likely to be 94% of LPA both with a
model error of ± 9 %.
iii) Rainfall over Broad Geographical Regions
Over the four broad geographical regions of the country, rainfall for the 2011
Southwest Monsoon Season is likely to be 97% of its LPA over North-West India,
95% of its LPA over North-East India, 95% of its LPA over Central India and 94% of
its LPA over South Peninsula, all with a model error of ± 8 %.
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