Friday, June 24, 2011



Dry winds prevailing

The dry winds are prevailing in parts of Andhra Pradesh. As per the farmers view the expected rainfall has not yet been observed. These winds are sucking off the soil moisture. The sown seeds are at risk especially the cotton seeds are difficult to sprout or sprouted to survive.

Deficit Rainfall in Andhra Pradesh - The Hindu


"THE HINDU" 
HYDERABAD: Andhra Pradesh, as a whole, has been hit by a 37 per cent rainfall deficit so far, with the South-West monsoon playing hide and seek after some initial showers, which were heavy at some places and moderate at other areas.
The monsoon arrived three weeks ago but the State has received only 52.3 mm rainfall till now as against the normal of 82.9 mm by this time of the season.
Region-wise, Telangana accounted for 49 per cent deficit whereas the shortfall in Rayalaseema was 34 per cent and it was only 21 per cent in Coastal Andhra.
Among the districts, Karimnagar and Adilabad reported highest deficits of 64 per cent and 58 per cent respectively while it was 48 per cent both in Guntur and Visakhapatnam.
The rainfall is rated as normal in Srikakulam, Vizianagaram, West Godavari, and Khammam.
Nellore district has sprung a surprise by reporting a 34 per cent excess rainfall.
Distressing
Following the dry spell being experienced for the past few days, distressing reports are being received from different areas of the State about the extent of the area sown so far. Farmers are worried over lack of rains at a time when wettings are required for nurseries raised to undertake transplantation of crops.
No inflows
Most of the major reservoirs, including Srisailam and Nagarjunasagar, have not yet received the fist instalment of the season's inflows.
Water release
Using the present “comfortable storages” (last year's carryover), the government, however, has taken a decision to release water for crops from July first week from Nagarjunasagar both for Krishna delta and the ayacut under the left bank canal.

The rainfall in the southern India, would be deficit in 2011



Looking at the reports - The rainfall in the southern India, would be deficit.

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The  moderate to strong  La Nina conditions  that prevailed  in the equatorial Pacific during mid-August 2010 to early February 2011 weakened during subsequent months and dissipated to neutral conditions around mid-May 2011.  The latest forecasts from a majority of the dynamical and statistical models indicate strong probability for the present  ENSO-neutral  conditions to continue  during the  current monsoon season and the remaining part of 2011.

It is important to  note that  in addition  to  El  Niño and La Niña events,  other factors such as the Indian Ocean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs)  have  also significant influence on India monsoon.  However, the latest forecasts do not suggest development of either a positive or a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event during the 2011 monsoon season. In the absence of strong monsoon forcing from both Pacific and Indian Oceans, intraseasonal variation may become more crucial during this southwest monsoon season and  lead to increased uncertainty in the monsoon forecasts.


Summary of the Update Forecasts for 2011 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall
i) Southwest Monsoon Season Rainfall
Rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2011 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be below normal (90-96% of LPA).


ii) Monthly (July & August) Rainfall
Rainfall over the country as a whole in the month of July 2011 is likely to be
93% of its LPA and that in the month of August is likely to be 94% of LPA both with a
model error of ± 9 %.
iii) Rainfall over Broad Geographical Regions
Over the four broad geographical regions of the country, rainfall for the 2011
Southwest Monsoon Season is likely to be 97% of its LPA over North-West India,
95% of its LPA over North-East India, 95% of its LPA over Central India and 94% of
its LPA over South Peninsula, all with a model error of ± 8 %.

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